Sunday Selections – Week 17

by omar on January 1, 2012 · 0 comments

My pick in bold with the line I have, vs the current line. For example, I have the Jets @ +1, but the current line is +3. Stupid me, but perhaps I still win that one. You never know most weeks, but I have no idea what’s going to happen this week, but here’s my guesses. Bring on the playoffs.

1:00 PM Washington +9 Philadelphia -9 100
1:00 PM N.Y. Jets +1 Miami -3 100
1:00 PM Carolina +7.5 New Orleans -7.5 100
1:00 PM Detroit -4.5 Green Bay +4.5 100
1:00 PM San Francisco -10.5 St. Louis +10.5 100
1:00 PM Indianapolis +3.5 Jacksonville -3.5 100
1:00 PM Buffalo +13 New England -10.5 100
1:00 PM Tennessee -1 Houston +1 100
1:00 PM Chicago +1 Minnesota -1 100
4:15 PM Pittsburgh -6.5 Cleveland +6.5 100
4:15 PM Baltimore -1.5 Cincinnati +1 100
4:15 PM Tampa Bay +10.5 Atlanta -10.5 100
4:15 PM Kansas City +3 Denver -3 100
4:15 PM San Diego +3 Oakland -3 100
4:15 PM Seattle +3 Arizona -3 100
8:20 PM Dallas +3 N.Y. Giants -3 100

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Texans at Colts – TNF

by omar on December 21, 2011 · 0 comments

The Colts finally picked up a win last week and are still the leader in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes. The Vikings and Rams are holding steady at two wins, so the Colts have to be careful here not to accidentally win either of these remaining games.

Teams that picked up their first win after week 13 are 2-2 ATS in their next game, and 0-0 ATS if hosting a division game. This is apparently uncharted territory. The Colts average 15.1 PPG, but put up 27 last week, their highest output of the season. One of those TDs was an interception return and another was an 80 yard run with 3 minutes left in the game. On the TD run, it appeared the back was going to be stopped behind the line of scrimmage, but he reversed field and scampered down the right sideline for the TD. Both of those plays are unlikely to be repeated this week. The other scoring was a 43 yard drive resulting in a TD pass, a 57 yard rive for a FG, and an 8 yard drive for a FG. Indy had 10 first downs and 82 yards passing. Despite the score, the Colts didn’t exactly dominate the Titans. The Colts are still a terrible team that managed to beat an average Titans team.

This week, the Colts face a very strong Texans team and the line is only 5′. Naturally, most people are on the Texans. However, the Texans have been horrible in the spotlight games, and they’ve never won in Indy. Colts QB Orlovsky spent that last two years in a Texans uniform. Perhaps he knows all their secrets. I don’t think his vast knowledge of the Texans will be of any use. I still think the Colts are terrible.

Houston has a good run defense. That should be enough to stop the Colts. On offense, the Texans should be able to run or throw against the Colts. Even the Colts special teams are poor. If there are valid reasons to back the Colts, I haven’t discovered them yet.

I’ll keep looking, but for now I’m locking in Texans -5′ for the Thursday night game.

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Sunday Selections – Week 14

December 11, 2011

Colts +16′ at Ravens The Colts were getting 20′ points last week at the Patriots. With the score 31-3 after 3 quarters, the Pats were well on their way to a cover, except that the Colts scored 3 touchdowns in the final quarter. Perhaps the Colts can maintain this offensive momentum. Teams that scored 21 [...]

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Thursday Night NFL – Browns vs. Steelers -14

December 8, 2011

Steelers -14  vs. Browns Seems like too many points for such a bitter rivalry, at least to this fan of the NFL. I like to think the Browns – Steelers is an annual war. Sure, I think like a 12 year old. This is just another game. The Steelers have been favored by more than [...]

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Sunday Selections – Week 13

December 4, 2011

Dolphins -3 over Raiders The Raiders have a pile of injuries to WR and McFadden. There’s also the Rolando McClain gun incident http://www.mercurynews.com/raiders/ci_19466173 The Dolphins have been playing better as of late, and they last played on Thanksgiving, meaning they had more time to prepare. The Raiders are 5-0 ATS this year on the road. [...]

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Sunday Selections

November 20, 2011

  Tennessee Titans +6.5 -105 Atlanta Falcons -6.5 -103 Can’t trust either team. Buffalo Bills +3 -104 Miami Dolphins -3 -104 The Dolphins have been player better as of late, while the Bills are in free fall. Taking Miami. Cincinnati Bengals +7 -115 Baltimore Ravens -7 +106 Bengals are the same team every week. Ravens [...]

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MNF – Vikings at Packers

November 14, 2011

The Vikings just played the Packers back in week #7 and they lost by a score of 27-33. Now the game moves to Green Bay’s place and the line is 13. Hmm. Packers have a bad pass defense and have an especially hard time covering running backs. I think Adrian Peterson gets his yards on [...]

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Sunday Selections – Week +10

November 11, 2011

Heading off to Columbia, SC today for the Gators vs. Cocks game. No time for write-ups and such. This week is already off to a bad start, as the Raiders came to life after two weeks of life support and the Chargers embarrassed themselves with such a horrible effort. I’m not one to say the fix is [...]

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Thursday Night NFL – Chargers -7 vs. Raiders

November 10, 2011

The Raiders failed to cover in their last outing by 21. The game before that, they failed to cover by 31! What happens to teams that fail to cover by at least 21 in their last two games? 16-19-1 ATS What if they were a home favorite last week? 1-6-1 ATS What if they were [...]

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Sunday Selections – Week #9

November 6, 2011

Miami +4 Tampa Bay +9 Indianapolis +6.5 Houston -10.5 N.Y. Jets +2.5 San Francisco -4.5 Dallas -11 Green Bay -5.5 There you go. 8 games and I can guarantee that two of those are winners. Patriots off a loss, now a big non-conference favorite at home: 0-2 ATS in the Belichick era. http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=team%3DPatriots+and+season%3E1999+and+p%3AL+and+H+and+line%3C-7+and+conference%21%3Do%3Aconference&submit=query I just [...]

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