Colts +16′ at Ravens
The Colts were getting 20′ points last week at the Patriots. With the score 31-3 after 3 quarters, the Pats were well on their way to a cover, except that the Colts scored 3 touchdowns in the final quarter. Perhaps the Colts can maintain this offensive momentum. Teams that scored 21 or more in the 4th QTR of the previous week average only 5 points in the first quarter of their next game, and 23 points for the entire game (99-79 ATS). Looks like the Colts offensive outburst is finished. That was to be expected against the Ravens anyway. Ravens only yield 16 points per game. The Colts aren’t doing much of anything on offense against Baltimore. Orlovsky completed 81% of his passes vs. the Patriots for 353 yards. He was 30 of 37 and only sacked twice. That won’t happen this week either.
In the second half of the season, winless teams getting at least this many points are 4-0 ATS, including last week’s Colts game.
This is the same Ravens team that lost to both the Jaguars and the Seahawks. The Ravens also beat the Cardianals by only 3. Laying this many points doesn’t seem like a good idea. The Ravens failed to cover as double digit home dogs in 3 tries last year, and are 0-1 ATS in that situation this year.
Taking the Colts because it’s the “smart” play.
Jax +3 over Tampa – The Jags are solid against the run and the pass. Can’t deny their defense is solid. They only give up 19 points per game. Tampa only scores 18.2 per game and 17.2 on the road. This is with their best QB under center. Jags only score 14.2 at home, but I think they play better under their new coach this week. Jags on the ML as well +147.
