My pick in bold with the line I have, vs the current line. For example, I have the Jets @ +1, but the current line is +3. Stupid me, but perhaps I still win that one. You never know most weeks, but I have no idea what’s going to happen this week, but here’s my guesses. Bring on the playoffs.

1:00 PM Washington +9 Philadelphia -9 100
1:00 PM N.Y. Jets +1 Miami -3 100
1:00 PM Carolina +7.5 New Orleans -7.5 100
1:00 PM Detroit -4.5 Green Bay +4.5 100
1:00 PM San Francisco -10.5 St. Louis +10.5 100
1:00 PM Indianapolis +3.5 Jacksonville -3.5 100
1:00 PM Buffalo +13 New England -10.5 100
1:00 PM Tennessee -1 Houston +1 100
1:00 PM Chicago +1 Minnesota -1 100
4:15 PM Pittsburgh -6.5 Cleveland +6.5 100
4:15 PM Baltimore -1.5 Cincinnati +1 100
4:15 PM Tampa Bay +10.5 Atlanta -10.5 100
4:15 PM Kansas City +3 Denver -3 100
4:15 PM San Diego +3 Oakland -3 100
4:15 PM Seattle +3 Arizona -3 100
8:20 PM Dallas +3 N.Y. Giants -3 100

The Colts finally picked up a win last week and are still the leader in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes. The Vikings and Rams are holding steady at two wins, so the Colts have to be careful here not to accidentally win either of these remaining games.

Teams that picked up their first win after week 13 are 2-2 ATS in their next game, and 0-0 ATS if hosting a division game. This is apparently uncharted territory. The Colts average 15.1 PPG, but put up 27 last week, their highest output of the season. One of those TDs was an interception return and another was an 80 yard run with 3 minutes left in the game. On the TD run, it appeared the back was going to be stopped behind the line of scrimmage, but he reversed field and scampered down the right sideline for the TD. Both of those plays are unlikely to be repeated this week. The other scoring was a 43 yard drive resulting in a TD pass, a 57 yard rive for a FG, and an 8 yard drive for a FG. Indy had 10 first downs and 82 yards passing. Despite the score, the Colts didn’t exactly dominate the Titans. The Colts are still a terrible team that managed to beat an average Titans team.

This week, the Colts face a very strong Texans team and the line is only 5′. Naturally, most people are on the Texans. However, the Texans have been horrible in the spotlight games, and they’ve never won in Indy. Colts QB Orlovsky spent that last two years in a Texans uniform. Perhaps he knows all their secrets. I don’t think his vast knowledge of the Texans will be of any use. I still think the Colts are terrible.

Houston has a good run defense. That should be enough to stop the Colts. On offense, the Texans should be able to run or throw against the Colts. Even the Colts special teams are poor. If there are valid reasons to back the Colts, I haven’t discovered them yet.

I’ll keep looking, but for now I’m locking in Texans -5′ for the Thursday night game.

Colts +16′ at Ravens

The Colts were getting 20′ points last week at the Patriots. With the score 31-3 after 3 quarters, the Pats were well on their way to a cover, except that the Colts scored 3 touchdowns in the final quarter. Perhaps the Colts can maintain this offensive momentum. Teams that scored 21 or more in the 4th QTR of the previous week average only 5 points in the first quarter of their next game, and 23 points for the entire game (99-79 ATS). Looks like the Colts offensive outburst is finished. That was to be expected against the Ravens anyway. Ravens only yield 16 points per game. The Colts aren’t doing much of anything on offense against Baltimore. Orlovsky completed 81% of his passes vs. the Patriots for 353 yards. He was 30 of 37 and only sacked twice. That won’t happen this week either.

In the second half of the season, winless teams getting at least this many points are 4-0 ATS, including last week’s Colts game.

This is the same Ravens team that lost to both the Jaguars and the Seahawks. The Ravens also beat the Cardianals by only 3. Laying this many points doesn’t seem like a good idea. The Ravens failed to cover as double digit home dogs in 3 tries last year, and are 0-1 ATS in that situation this year.

Taking the Colts because it’s the “smart” play.

Jax +3 over Tampa – The Jags are solid against the run and the pass. Can’t deny their defense is solid. They only give up 19 points per game. Tampa only scores 18.2 per game and 17.2 on the road. This is with their best QB under center. Jags only score 14.2 at home, but I think they play better under their new coach this week. Jags on the ML as well +147.

Steelers -14  vs. Browns

Seems like too many points for such a bitter rivalry, at least to this fan of the NFL. I like to think the Browns – Steelers is an annual war. Sure, I think like a 12 year old. This is just another game.

The Steelers have been favored by more than 13.5 just 3 times since ’89, and it’s always the same line. Steelers -14.

Steel is 1-2 ATS in these games with the average score being 23.3 to 13.3.

The total for this one is 39? 40? No snow? No weather in play? The temperature will be in the 30′s but no snow.

Teams getting more than 10 on a Thursday night? 1-10-1 ATS  Not looking good for the Browns.

Great teams usually pound the teams like these Browns. Are the Steelers a great team? I don’t think they are, but they do know how to win games. Teams that are .700 or better through at least 7 games and favored by more than 13 in a divisional non-Sunday game? 4-1 ATS with an average score of 30-8. That sounds about right for the Browns total. I just wonder how many the Steelers will score. They had an easy week last week with everything going their way despite not playing all that well. Maybe a bit of a flat spot last week, and their level of play doesn’t need to elevate in order to win this game either. They can coast to victory and fail to cover.

Last Thursday most people had the Eagles and the Seahawks pulled off the big upset. It’s the Eagles. Whatever. Dog.
Then on Monday night most people had the Chargers and a cover over Jax. Fav.
Is it time for the dog again?

It’s not like this great rivalry had been producing close games. I looked up how often the Steelers actually beat the Browns by more than 14. It’s happened 11 times since ’89. Roughly once every two years. Perhaps this is the Browns year to not get beat by more than 14 because the Steelers won by 18 and 32 in 2010.

It may be the dog’s turn again this week, but I’m going with the Steelers anyway.

Dolphins -3 over Raiders

The Raiders have a pile of injuries to WR and McFadden. There’s also the Rolando McClain gun incident http://www.mercurynews.com/raiders/ci_19466173

The Dolphins have been playing better as of late, and they last played on Thanksgiving, meaning they had more time to prepare.

The Raiders are 5-0 ATS this year on the road. I’m still taking the Dolphins. The Raiders have the lead in the AFC West, but that doesn’t mean they know how to deal with success.

Titans +2′ over the Bills WSEX had the best line on this. They had 2.5 this morning, when I was seeing 1 at other shops. Strange. If they wanted Titans $, I just gave ‘em some. SIA had 2.5 as well.

The Bills last three games were all on the road, all losses. They finally return home to face a non-divisional opponent in the Titans. Teams in this situation after week 10 are 8-1 ATS

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=p%3AAL+and+pp%3AAL+and+ppp%3AAL+and+H+and+DIV%3D0+and+playoffs%3D0+and+week%3E10&submit=query

Buffalo’s homecoming won’t exactly be a ticker tape parade. The Bills game most likely will not be sold out. Due to injuries among the defensive front, the Bills are shifting to more of a 4-3 defense. Bad time to be tinkering with the defense. They don’t have their NT, and they don’t have any linebackers that can get to the outside or rush the passer. In short, the Bills defense is terrible up front. They don’t help out the secondary or rush the passer, and they don’t make plays in the offensive backfield. The leading tackler on the Bills is the SS. He’s out for this game.

Buffalo is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this year, while the Titans are 2-1-2 ATS as a dog. I have every reason to believe this will be a close game, but this appears to be two teams moving in opposite directions. The Titans are figuring it out, while the Bills are struggling.

Taking the Titans and the points.

Redskins +3 over the Jets

In support of the Redskins, I find that teams that just broke a 6 game losing streak last week and are at home this week are 10-4 ATS

http://b2b.sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=p%3Astreak%3D-6+and+H+and+p%3AW&submit=query

The average score in those games was 20.9 to 19.5 Perhaps we should expect a close game here. Both defenses are solid.

If you take out all the divisional games, the home team is 4-0 ATS, winning by a total of 29.5 to 16. Rex Grossman, anyone?

I see Jets -3 and Jets -1.5 and that 72% of the Wagerline crowd is on the Jets. 70% at Carib is on the Jets. 90% of the players in the Yahoo pick’em games are on the Jets. Of course the Jets are going to win! Apparently 90% of the people think so.

I’m taking the Redskins.

Tennessee Titans +6.5 -105
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 -103

Can’t trust either team.

Buffalo Bills +3 -104
Miami Dolphins -3 -104

The Dolphins have been player better as of late, while the Bills are in free fall. Taking Miami.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 -115
Baltimore Ravens -7 +106

Bengals are the same team every week. Ravens are up and down. I think the Ravens at home get it done.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 -103
Cleveland Browns -1 -105

I give thanks that this game is not Thanksgiving Day football for all of America.

Oakland Raiders +1 +104
Minnesota Vikings -1 -113

Two diseased teams hugging each other. Taking the Vikings

Carolina Panthers +7 -115
Detroit Lions -7 +106

Cat fight. No idea. Taking the home team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +14 -105
Green Bay Packers -14 -103

Packers are soooo good game after game. Their consistency is a reason to bet the Packers despite the huge line. The Packers line is of course inflated because of their record. Thinking about taking the Bucs here. Green Bay will win though. I have no doubt Green Bay will win, but 14 is too much for me to pass up. Then again, I should just stay away from this game.

Dallas Cowboys -7 -104
Washington Redskins +7 -104

Can’t bet on the Redskins at any price.

Arizona Cardinals +10 +102
San Francisco 49ers -10 -110

Everyone love the 49ers. Not touching this one, but I might take the DD dog.

Seattle Seahawks +3 -108
St. Louis Rams -3 +100

Rams.

San Diego Chargers +3.5 +100
Chicago Bears -3.5 -108

Bears are my best pick of the week. I’ve taken this game apart 20 ways and it’s Bears every time. Bears. Bears. Seriously, I’m taking the Bears.

If they lose I’ll be crushed. All eggs in the same basket kind of situation. Poor money management going on here.

Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 -103
New York Giants -5.5 -105

Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 +103
New England Patriots -14.5 -111

The Vikings just played the Packers back in week #7 and they lost by a score of 27-33.

Now the game moves to Green Bay’s place and the line is 13. Hmm.

Packers have a bad pass defense and have an especially hard time covering running backs. I think Adrian Peterson gets his yards on the ground and through the air, keeping this one close.

Plenty of people out there are on the Packers, but the line is getting smaller. Looks like another matchup of sharps vs. squares, and this week I’ll side with the sharps. Green Bay plus the 13.

[EDIT] The Packers are consistent from game to game, while the Vikings oscillate between good and crappy. This was them on a crappy night. Somehow the idea of having a bye week and then facing a divisional rival means that the team in question will be prepared and put up a good fight. This was not the case with these sorry Vikings. The offensive line looked terrible and the defense did as well. They Packers may not lose if they continue to perform like that.

Heading off to Columbia, SC today for the Gators vs. Cocks game.

No time for write-ups and such.

This week is already off to a bad start, as the Raiders came to life after two weeks of life support and the Chargers embarrassed themselves with such a horrible effort.

I’m not one to say the fix is in when I lose a game, but it sure seemed like the Chargers were destined to lost that game.

Just like the week before the Broncos were completely given the game by this same Raiders team. I guess this is the thanks the Raiders get for throwing the game against Denver last week.

I don’t have this giant conspiracy theory quite worked out yet, but this sure is a goofy year in the NFL. Here’s my picks for week 10.

The Raiders failed to cover in their last outing by 21. The game before that, they failed to cover by 31!

What happens to teams that fail to cover by at least 21 in their last two games? 16-19-1 ATS

What if they were a home favorite last week? 1-6-1 ATS

What if they were also a home favorite the week before? 0-2 ATS

http://killersports.com/nfl.py/query?sid=guest&sort=ATS_PL&text=p%3Aats+margin%3C-20+and+pp%3Aats+margin%3C-20+and+p%3AHF+and+pp%3AHF&submit=query

This leaves nothing else to narrow down, such as this is a division game, a prime time game, etc.

In the Norv Turner era (2007–present) the Chargers have done well in these spotlight games. In games at home on a Thursday or a Monday the Chargers are 5-1 ATS

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=team%3DChargers+and+season%3E2006+and+H+and+%28day%3DThursday+or+day%3DMonday%29&submit=query

Also, the Norv led Chargers always seem to pick up the pace later in the season. From week 10 on, the Chargers at home have been a good bet, going 13-7 ATS, and against divisional opponents, they went 6-2 ATS with one of those losses being the 13-28 loss to the Raiders last year.

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=team%3DChargers+and+season%3E2006+and+H+and+week%3E9+and+DIV&submit=query

I like the Chargers tonight, and I lean to the under as well.

Miami +4
Tampa Bay +9
Indianapolis +6.5
Houston -10.5
N.Y. Jets +2.5
San Francisco -4.5
Dallas -11
Green Bay -5.5

There you go. 8 games and I can guarantee that two of those are winners.

Patriots off a loss, now a big non-conference favorite at home: 0-2 ATS in the Belichick era.

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?sort=ATS_PL&text=team%3DPatriots+and+season%3E1999+and+p%3AL+and+H+and+line%3C-7+and+conference%21%3Do%3Aconference&submit=query

I just read an opinion by a Giants fan who listed all their injuries, knew all the holes the Patriots were going to exploit, knew why the Giants had zero chance today. When Giants fan gives up on the Giants, that’s the time to move in. A word of caution though, Pinny appears to want Giants money at this point.

Giants +9′